In article <
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(John Dallman) writes: | | A separate problem, which isn't so very far away, is speed-of-light- | in-silicon. Take a McKinley, at just over 400mm^2. So, it's about 20mm | from side to side, and that's equivalent to 15GHz in vacuum, or 10GHz at | best in silicon. Yes, indeed. See below. | The salvation for serial processors, oddly enough, might be Microsoft. | Since the desktop apps that they do so well aren't nearly as amenable to | multi-threading (to speed up their eye candy) as server software is, | they're going to keep up the pressure for faster serial processors for a | while. They'll have to stop, and start improving efficiency at some point, | but that cultural change might be hard to institute. In my view, that is the reason that we haven't moved already! In article <
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, Benjamin Ylvisaker <
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writes: | | We are definitely seeing the beginning of the end of Not-Moore's law | for conventional microprocessor designs. A clear analysis: |
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/agarwal00clock.html Interesting. Whether or not it is right, it shows that some people closer to the action share my suspicions

| Do you mean tricks like arranging buffers and wire sizes in some crazy | way to make a wire that naïvely should have a delay of 800 picoseconds | actually have a delay of 600 picoseconds? Or tricks like the whole | procession of micro-architectural enhancements (superscalar, branch | prediction, trace cache, etc.) that we have seen? If the former, then | I believe that the mileage we can get out of those tricks is | distinctly limited. If the latter, then it is much harder to predict | what creative people may come up with. I agree with that, and the remark applies more generally. Most of the tricks used to reduce power and improve effective performance (whether in hardware or software) have limited scope. It is not as if nobody has tackled the problems before! | Five, ten, twenty years is a long time. Probably while the rest of | us are still trying to figure out how to formulate the problem in | software, Andy Glew and others like him will have solved it in | silicon and chips of the (possibly not-too-distant future) will be | spinning off threads on the fly. | | I doubt that such a solution could scale very well. There is an | interesting parallel here with the superscalar versus VLIW debate. | The basic question when comparing those two ideas is, should it be the | programmer and/or compiler that figures out which instructions should | run in parallel or the hardware? Now we're wondering the exact same | thing, but about entire threads, not just a couple of adjacent (or | nearly so) instructions. I believe that the problem of deciding how | to spin off parallel threads from a single threaded instruction stream | and maintaining coherence between the threads is too hard to be solved | (with reasonable efficiency) in hardware. I would be fascinated if | someone can provide some solid counter-evidence against my belief.... I doubt that anyone can, as I think you are right. Where Robert Myers's solution could work is when the compiler generates a large number of very lightweight actions, and the hardware schedules them. In article <
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, Robert Myers <
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writes: | | I wondered when people would see the light, so to speak, and switch | from electrons to something sensible like photons. My private | correspondent didn't think that would happen anytime soon. Yes. The interest in photoelectronics in silicon and hybrid materials is at least partially fuelled by the desire to be able to use light guides for long-distance (on-chip) communication. | It's apparently been pretty hard to predict what creative people are | going to come up with in either case. Past ends-of-the-road foreseen | have come and gone with barely a blip. And others have been predicted to be soluble, but have not been, often with a denial that the cause of the direction change was the problem. | There is a published Ph.D. dissertation by Haitham Akkary, of | Portland State University, that gives some algorithms and speedups for | various forms of implicit multithreading. It looks quite promising. | Akkary reported average speedups of 20-30% and peak speedups of over | 80% on some benchmarks. Not very hopeful, I am afraid. For a scalable solution, we need an average of 2-3 times, at least. | There are plans in the works to use asymmetric helper threads on | actual processors. You can find stuff by googling on helper thread. It is an old trick. | The similarity to the VLIW problem is not accidental. The problems in | exposing and exploiting almost any kind of parallelism are pretty much | the same (I can thank David Gay for this insight) and that's what made | me decide the VLIW problem (and EPIC) were worth studying, whether | VLIW and EPIC were really good ideas or not. Why? The problems were already well understood - just not by the people promoting those technologies. | People usually save the I don't think it's going to scale argument | as their last line of defense. You might have gone there a little | prematurely.

. It's known as foresight

The reason that I don't like Eggers's SMT model is that the scalability restrictions mean that it will never deliver enough of an advantage to counteract its problems, at least in my area. Worse, it means that it will give continuing improvements for only a few years, whereupon the changing circumstances could well make it redundant. This is similar. I don't see the use of hardware threads to speed up serial execution of current codes as scalable enough to be worth the effort of developing. But I do see them as worthwhile if we can start to use programming paradigms that would be more suited to them. Regards, Nick Maclaren.